| Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory |
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| 作者姓名： | 张亚平 裴玉龙 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]SchoolofTransportationScienceandEngineering,HarbinInstituteofTechnology,Harbin150090,China [2]SchoolofHighwayEngineering,ChangshaUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Changsha410076,China |
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| 基金项目： | SponsoredbytheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(GrantNo .5 0 2 780 2 7) |
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| 摘 要： | This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongestcd traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis, The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension, Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed.
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| 关 键 词： | 交通流量 流量预测 突变理论 数学模型 |
Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory |
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| ZHANG Ya-ping.Research on traffic flow forecasting model based on cusp catastrophe theory[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2004,11(1):1-5. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Ya-ping |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,China;School of Highway Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410076,China
2. School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150090,China |
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| Abstract: | This paper intends to describe the relationship between traffic parameters by using cusp catastrophe theory and to deduce highway capacity and corresponding speed forecasting value through suitable transformation of catastrophe model. The five properties of a catastrophe system are outlined briefly, and then the data collected on freeways of Zhujiang River Delta, Guangdong province, China are examined to ascertain whether they exhibit qualitative properties and attributes of the catastrophe model. The forecasting value of speed and capacity for freeway segments are given based on the catastrophe model. Furthermore, speed-flow curve on freeway is drawn by plotting out congested and uncongested traffic flow and the capacity value for the same freeway segment is also obtained from speed-flow curve to test the feasibility of the application of cusp catastrophe theory in traffic flow analysis. The calculating results of catastrophe model coincide with those of traditional traffic flow models regressed from field observed data, which indicates that the deficiency of traditional analysis of relationship between speed, flow and occupancy in two-dimension can be compensated by analysis of the relationship among speed, flow and occupancy based on catastrophe model in three-dimension. Finally, the prospects and problems of its application in traffic flow research in China are discussed. |
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| Keywords: | capacity cusp catastrophe model speed-flow curve traffic flow forecasting |
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