To accurately evaluate the bearing capacity of pavement structures, this paper proposed a upper shakedown analysis method based on the kinematic shakedown theorem, then calculated and analyzed the dependence of dimensionless upper shakedown load on the loading distribution, depth and angle of internal friction in the basecourse and ratio of elastic module in the basecourse and subgrade. Meanwhile the upper shakedown load was compared with elastic limit, plastic limit and lower shakedown load. The results showed that the upper shakedown load decreases with the increasing of a/r in a single-heel system, while increases in a dual-wheel system. The upper shakedown load increases with the increasing of depth of basecourse/subgrade interface and angle of internal friction in the basecourse, and the growth is slow as the value h/r (the ratio of surface course thickness to load equivalent radius)is greater than 2.5. The upper shakedown load decreases with the increasing ratio of E/E₀, and the upper shakedown load is the maximum when E/E₀ s 1.0. The upper shakedown load is greater than elastic limit and lower shakedown load, lesser than plastic limit. Our researches show that the shakedown limit based on the upper bound theorem can accurately represent the bearing capacity of pavement structures and could be a new reference to the analysis and design of pavement.