| 引用本文: | 骆燕燕,祁侨绅,王永鹏,刘昙,安劲昭.基于组合模型的电连接器剩余寿命预测[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2025,57(6):127.DOI:10.11918/202405035 |
| LUO Yanyan,QI Qiaoshen,WANG Yongpeng,LIU Tan,AN Jingzhao.Residual life prediction of electrical connector based on combination model[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2025,57(6):127.DOI:10.11918/202405035 |
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| 基于组合模型的电连接器剩余寿命预测 |
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骆燕燕1,祁侨绅1,王永鹏2,刘昙3,安劲昭4
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(1．电工产品可靠性技术省部共建协同创新中心(河北工业大学),天津 300401;2．国家电网山东省电力公司邹平供电公司, 山东 邹平 256200;3．国家电网冀北电力有限公司唐山供电公司,河北 唐山 063000; 4．天津津航计算技术研究所,天津 300308)
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| 摘要: |
| 为预测电连接器的剩余寿命,提出了一种自适应Wiener模型与离散灰色模型(discrete grey model,DGM(1,1))组合的电连接器寿命预测方法。首先,根据Arrhenius模型选取温度循环试验的应力大小,确定试验周期、暴露时间及温升率等参数,选择接触电阻为退化特征量,进行温度循环试验；其次,分别采用自适应Wiener模型与DGM（1,1）模型对温度循环下的电连接器剩余寿命进行预测,对比不同温度应力下两种模型伪寿命预测结果,提出了自适应Wiener与DGM（1,1）的组合模型；最后,采用最小二乘法估计Arrhenius模型中参数,外推正常温度下电连接器寿命。结果表明:DGM（1,1）模型在较低的温度应力下预测结果更准确,而自适应Wiener模型在较高的温度应力下预测结果更准确；在综合考虑不同温度应力模型适用性的情况下,构建的自适应Wiener和DGM（1,1）组合模型能更精准地预测电连接器的剩余寿命。研究结果可为电连接器的维修决策提供参考,为电气设备可靠性的提升提供支撑。 |
| 关键词: 电连接器 自适应Wiener模型 DGM（1,1）模型 温度循环 寿命预测 |
| DOI：10.11918/202405035 |
| 分类号:TM501 |
| 文献标识码:A |
| 基金项目: |
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| Residual life prediction of electrical connector based on combination model |
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LUO Yanyan1,QI Qiaoshen1,WANG Yongpeng2,LIU Tan3,AN Jingzhao4
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（1．Provincial and Ministerial Co-construction Collaborative Innovation Center on Reliability Technology of Electrical Products(Hebei University of Technology), Tianjin 300401, China; 2．Zouping Power Supply Company, State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company, Zouping 256200, Shandong, China; 3．Tangshan Power Supply Company, State Grid Jibei Electric Power Company limited, Tangshan 063000, Hebei, China; 4．Tianjin Jinhang Institute of Computing Technology, Tianjin 300308, China）
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| Abstract: |
| In order to predict the remaining life of electrical connector, this paper proposes a life prediction method for the electrical connector based on a combination model of an adaptive Wiener and a discrete grey model (DGM(1,1)). First, based on the Arrhenius model, the stress level of the temperature cycle test is selected to determine experimental parameters such as test cycle, exposure time, and temperature rise rate, and contact resistance is chosen as the degradation characteristic quantity for the temperature cycle test. Second, the remaining life of the electrical connector under temperature cycles is predicted using both the adaptive Wiener model and the DGM(1,1) model seperately. By comparing the pseudo-life prediction results of the two models under different temperature stresses are compared, a combined model of the adaptive Wiener and DGM(1,1) is proposed. Finally, the parameters in the Arrhenius model are estimated by the least squares method, and the life of the electrical connector under normal temperature is extrapolated. The results show that the DGM(1,1) model provides more accurate predictions under lower temperature stresses, while the adaptive Wiener model provides more accurate predictions under higher temperature stresses. Considering the applicability of the model under different temperature stresses comprehensively, the combined model of adaptive Wiener and DGM (1,1) can predict the remaining life of electrical connectors more accurately. The research results can provide reference for maintenance decisions of electrical connectors and support for the reliability improvement of electrical equipment. |
| Key words: electrical connector adaptive Wiener model DGM（1,1）model temperature cycle life prediction |
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