Rolling forecasting model of regional transportaion volume based on support vector machine
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U491

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    Abstract:

    To get the volume forecasting method which can reflect the mechanism of regional transportation demand characteristics,and considering the limited data of regional transportation volume and the stochastic and uncontrollable of the inducing factors,a rolling forecasting model of regional transportation volume was developed based on the Support Vector Machine and the analysis of the characteristics of regional transportation demand and the defects of existing forecasting methods.Through continuous interaction between predictive value and statistical value to update the training samples,the model realized the rolling forecasts of the regional transportation volume,and avoided the process of establishment and calculation of the nonlinear function.Taking the transportation volume of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area for instance,the rationality of the model has been validated and the results indicate that the model enhances the forecasting accuracy of regional volume,and has better prospects.

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  • Received:
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  • Online: April 26,2012
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