In order to make out an objective and fine assessment on risk conduction of weapon development projects,a fuzzy cloud model algorithm is utilized to calculate the impacts that arise from single risk conduction factor upon schedule,cost and performance risk. Then the total impacts from all risk conduction factors are calculated through weighted summation. In addition,the comprehensive risk value is calculated by the ranking method of triangular fuzzy number complementary judgment matrix based on the possibility degree theory. Finally,the values of single impact factor on risk and the total risk sequence are obtained through the simulation operation on X-51 propulsion system project,which requires explicitly for strengthening the index of supervisory control and management. They also verify the validity and feasibility of the proposed identification and evaluation method for risk conduction. This method provides decision-making support for the risk conduction managers of weapon development projects.