To adapt to the changes in the next generation air transport systems, this research proposed an aircraft collision avoidance method that takes into account pilot’s intentions. An improved aircraft position prediction model was proposed by considering pilot’s intentions. On this basis, conflict probability between aircraft and restricted airspace and that between aircraft pairs were modelled and estimated respectively, and the conflict risks were divided to three levels according to the conflict probability value. Additionally, four important factors that affect the conflict probability were analysed, and the corresponding conflict avoidance strategies for each conflict risk level was proposed. Results show that the conflict probability can be reduced by increasing the distance between two flights route segments or the length of each flight route segment, or by declining the overlapping time of flight plans between two flights or the time duration of each flight plan. The proposed aircraft conflict avoidance method provides a theoretical basis for the improvement of the autonomous decision support system for conflict detection and resolution, which is of great significance for ensuring air traffic safety.