Deep-water pipeline system is an important structure that transports oil and gas in offshore engineering. To ensure the fluidity of oil, pipelines are usually applied with high temperature during operation. The asymmetric expansion and shrink can make the pipeline move axially and globally toward one direction. The phenomenon is called pipeline walking, which is a severe challenge for the safety of pipeline systems. The working period of pipeline lasts for a long time, starting from heating up and ending in cooling down. Therefore, the soil resistance on pipeline in the cooling down process may be larger than that in the heating process due to soil consolidation, and the soil resistance of the overall working period is not a constant value. Through theoretical analysis, the effective axial force along the pipeline considering soil resistance increment within one loading cycle was investigated, and a walking-rate prediction method was proposed. In addition, an engineering case was analyzed based on the obtained analytical solution.