|
| Abstract: |
| Wavelet method is often used in analyzing trend and period of time sequence. When using wavelet method one serious problem is different chosen wavelet basis and scale would lead to different results. Sometimes, the results vary greatly. To overcome this problem and to improve the accuracy and efficiency, a new method denoted by Natural-based Wavelet Method is introduced and extended. It can be proved that the proposed method in fact is a special class of discrete wavelet. At first, two numerical examples are designed to show the capacity of the novel method. Second, this method is applied to a precipitation series. According to wavelet analysis and short-range precipitation prediction, this precipitation exists a faintly increasing trend. Through the analysis, the studied precipitation has two major periods: 11 and 41 years. The results validate that the Natural-based Wavelet Method used in application of multi-complicated observed data is suitable. It is easy to write the source code of the proposed method. When new information appears, new information can be easily added into the original sequence, this is another advantage of the proposed method. |
| Key words: natural-based wavelet method long-time precipitation sequence short-range precipitation time sequence |
| DOI：10.11916/j.issn.1005-9113.18008 |
| Clc Number:O241.8 |
| Fund: |
|
| Descriptions in Chinese: |
| 自然基小波的理论及应用研究 曹艳华1，陈梦成2，徐保根1 （1. 华东交通大学 理学院，南昌 330013； 2. 华东交通大学 土木建筑工程学院，南昌 330013） 创新点说明：提出采用自然基小波方法研究时间序列周期问题。 研究目的： 采用自然基小波方法分析鄱阳湖流域长时间序列的降水周期，并且预测其未来几年的降水趋势问题。 研究方法： 实际观测鄱阳湖流域长时间序列的降水数据，对近110年的数据，缺失部分采用插值技术，分析其可能存在的降水周期。 研究结果： 采用自然基小波函数分析具有多周期的理想数据或者实际观测数据，均能正确的分析出应有的周期，并且方便地对未来的数据趋势进行预测。 结论： 1）分析多尺度的数据周期时，自然基小波精度高于Fourier分析； 2）应用自然基小波时，时间尺度不能取得太精细； 3）自然基小波方法适用于复杂观测数据，这种方法新颖，操作简单，易于编写程序。 关键词：自然基小波；长期降水序列；短期预报；时间序列 |
