| 摘要: |
| 寄宿制学校是聚集性程度较高的场所之一。针对新型冠状病毒肺炎在寄宿制学校传染风险控制问题,设定五级可实行的防控措施及其对洗漱、外出、上课、就餐、回寝5个生活环节传染风险的影响程度,构建基于统计与概率判断的健康者-感染者（SI）传染模型。对14 d内无独立卫生间的4人寝室（公寓楼A）和有独立卫生间的6人寝室（公寓楼B）两种典型住宿形式的公寓楼中学生在各防控等级下新型冠状病毒的传播速度进行模拟。结果显示,只要出现一名感染者,即便在最严格的第五级防控措施下,公寓楼A中疫情也会在全楼内快速传播。公寓楼B则可将两周内的感染人数控制在10人以下.全员接种新型冠状病毒疫苗会显著降低病毒传播速度,洗漱模式不再有显著影响,即使不采取防控措施,传染人数也会大幅下降,而宿舍人数成为影响病毒传播的最主要因素。该研究成果可为校园疫情防控提供信息支持。 |
| 关键词: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 疫情防控 寄宿制学校 风险分析 疫苗接种 |
| DOI：10.11918/202103108 |
| 分类号:R824.2 |
| 文献标识码:A |
| 基金项目:哈尔滨工业大学疫情应急科研攻关项目(YXQQ5730000120) |
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| COVID-19 prevention and control measures and infection risks in a boarding school |
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PANG Tianrui1,ZHENG Tong1,2
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(1.School of Environment, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China; 2.Heilongjiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Polar Environment and Ecosystem（Harbin Institute of Technology）, Harbin 150090, China)
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| Abstract: |
| Boarding school is one of the places where people usually live in densely crowed conditions. In order to control the risk of COVID-19 epidemic in boarding schools, five levels of practicable pandemic prevention measures and their effects on infection risks in five typical campus living scenes, including going to washroom, going out, going to class, having meal, and returning to dormitory were proposed, and the susceptible-infective (SI) model based on statistics and probability hypotheses was developed. Then the SARS-CoV-2 infection rates among students in 14 days were simulated in two typical apartment types: four-person dormitory with two public washrooms on each floor (apartment A) and six-person dormitory with a private washroom (apartment B). Results show that for apartment A, once there was an infected person, the epidemic spread rapidly in the whole building even under the most stringent prevention and control measures (level V). While for apartment B, when the most stringent prevention and control measures (level V) were taken, the epidemic could be controlled within the range of less than 10 people in two weeks. In addition, full vaccination would significantly inhibit the infection rate, and the number of washrooms would no longer be a significant factor. Even if no prevention and control measures were taken, the number of infected people would decrease significantly, and the number of persons in one dormitory became the main factor affecting the spread of the virus. The research results can provide information support for campus epidemic prevention and control. |
| Key words: s COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control boarding school risk analysis vaccination |
