| 引用本文: | 刘兴坡,陈翔,胡小婷,王天宇,张倩,周亦昀,李永战.基于正交极差分析的青龙河流域HSPF模型参数寻优模式[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2018,50(2):131.DOI:10.11918/j.issn.0367-6234.201607069 |
| LIU Xingpo,CHEN Xiang,HU Xiaoting,WANG Tianyu,ZHANG Qian,ZHOU Yiyun,LI Yongzhan.Orthogonal range analysis-based HSPF parameter optimization pattern for Qinglong River watershed[J].Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology,2018,50(2):131.DOI:10.11918/j.issn.0367-6234.201607069 |
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| 基于正交极差分析的青龙河流域HSPF模型参数寻优模式 |
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刘兴坡1,2,陈翔1,2,胡小婷1,2,王天宇1,2,张倩1,2,周亦昀1,2,李永战3
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(1.上海海事大学 海洋科学与工程学院,上海 201306;2.上海海事大学 海洋环境与生态模拟研究中心, 上海 201306;3.河北省桃林口水库管理局,河北 秦皇岛 066400)
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| 摘要: |
| 为评价桃林口水库水文水质状况, 建立其上游青龙河流域的BASINs/HSPF水文水质模拟模型.以Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数作为评价标准, 联合正交设计和极差分析法进行参数寻优研究和可靠性分析.结果表明：BASINs/HSPF模型参数寻优的正交极差联合分析模式可大幅减小参数的寻优次数和寻优区间, 是获得模型灵敏度参数和参数满意解的高效模式, 可为模型参数寻优算法开发提供借鉴; 应用正交极差分析的参数率定结果, 以青龙河流域下游桃林口水库监测点2011年实测径流数据对模型进行验证, 验证期(2011年)的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数为0.79, 稍低于率定期(2012年)的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(0.81)以及PEST自动校准的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(0.84), 水质模拟结果也基本吻合; 针对青龙河流域BASINs/HSPF模型, 应用正交极差分析方法识别出6个高灵敏的BASINs/HSPF模型参数(IRC、INFILT、AGWRC、DEEPFR、AGWETP和LZSN); 应用正交极差分析方法获得的BASINs/HSPF模型参数满意解取值区间依次为：LZSN[2.0, 6.3], INFILT[0.084, 0.167], AGWRC[0.90, 0.95], DEEPFR[0.209, 0.333], BASETP[0.067, 0.199], AGWETP[0.067, 0.199], CEPSC[0.14, 0.27], UZSN[1.35, 2.00], IRC[0.392, 0.483].
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| 关键词: 青龙河流域 BASINs/HSPF模型 参数寻优 正交设计 极差分析 可靠性分析 |
| DOI：10.11918/j.issn.0367-6234.201607069 |
| 分类号:X522 |
| 文献标识码:A |
| 基金项目:城市水资源与水环境国家重点实验室开放课题(ES201104);国家自然科学基金(51008191) |
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| Orthogonal range analysis-based HSPF parameter optimization pattern for Qinglong River watershed |
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LIU Xingpo1,2,CHEN Xiang1,2,HU Xiaoting1,2,WANG Tianyu1,2,ZHANG Qian1,2,ZHOU Yiyun1,2,LI Yongzhan3
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（1.College of Ocean Science and Engineering, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306, China;2.Center for Marine Environmental and Ecological Modelling, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306,China; 3.Taolinkou Reservoir Administration, Hebei Province, Qinhuangdao 066400,Hebei, China)
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| Abstract: |
| In order to evaluate hydrological and water quality situation of Taolinkou reservoir, BASINs/HSPF model of the upstream Qinglong River watershed is developed to conduct the hydrological and water quality simulation. The efficacy, efficiency and reliability of the orthogonal range analysis pattern for parameter optimization is assessed by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and different comparisons, and the following conclusions are obtained: the orthogonal range analysis pattern can decrease optimization efficiency and narrow parameter range for BASINs/HSPF, and can be used as a high-efficiency tool to obtain the high sensitive parameters and the satisfied parameter set. It is also useful for developing the relative parameter optimization algorithms; the measured runoff time series of the Taolinkou reservoir in 2012 and 2011 were used for calibration and verification, respectively. Based on the orthogonal range analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is up to 0.79 for verification, lower than that of calibration (0.81) and PEST automatic calibration(0.84);six relatively sensitive parameters (IRC, INFILT, AGWRC, DEEPFR, AGWETP and LZSN) are identified based on range analysis for BASINs/HSPF of Qinglong river watershed; ranges of the satisfied BASINs/HSPF parameter set by orthogonal range analysis method are as follows: [2.0, 6.3](LZSN), [0.084, 0.167](INFILT), [0.90, 0.95](AGWRC), [0.209, 0.333](DEEPFR); [0.067, 0.199](BASETP), [0.067, 0.199](AGWETP), [0.14, 0.27](CEPSC), [1.35, 2.00](UZSN), [0.392, 0.483](IRC).
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| Key words: Qinglong River watershed BASINs/HSPF model parameter optimization orthogonal design range analysis reliability analysis |
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